Rice plays a strategic role in Indonesia, thus managing rice availability (supply) is a necessity, as the inability to provide sufficient rice may lead to both vertical and horizontal social conflicts. The government has not yet fully met domestic rice needs, as evidenced by the continued reliance on imports. Various efforts have been made by the government to meet rice demand through multiple policies, including productivity improvement, the rice self-sufficiency program, the determination of government purchase prices, and rice import strategies. The main challenge for agricultural development in the future is the provision of food for the population, commonly referred to as food security.

Food security is defined as the availability of food and the ability of individuals to access it. Problems related to rice management require a comprehensive concept to identify determinant factors so that rice-related issues can be addressed and anticipated in the future. The policy scenarios analyzed consist of four types. First, the status quo scenario, which simulates existing policies in the current system to identify problems that may arise in the future. Second, the moderate 1 scenario, which simulates policies of increasing production rates and reducing imports. Third, the moderate 2 scenario, which simulates policies of increasing production rates, reducing land conversion, and lowering the import ratio. Fourth, the optimistic scenario.