Currently, the Indonesian government, through the Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink 2030 policy, is committed to achieving mitigation targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the forestry and land sector, aiming for a condition where carbon absorption levels are higher than emission levels by 2030. This policy reflects Indonesia’s seriousness in reducing GHG emissions and addressing climate change.

This research aims to analyze predictions of forest cover change and carbon stock for the next five, ten, and twenty years, identify the driving factors of forest cover change, and formulate management strategies. Remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Driving Force, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR), and SWOT analysis were employed to process the data. Land use and land cover change maps were developed using GIS-based change detection techniques.

The data analyzed included field data, secondary data, key informant interviews, and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) results. The urgency of this research lies in its contribution to protecting forest ecosystems and identifying areas requiring conservation actions to ensure the sustainability of natural resources. By understanding forest cover changes and carbon stock, development decisions can be directed to minimize negative impacts on the environment and society.

This study directly supports the achievement of SDG 13 and SDG 15. It integrates environmental science, forestry, data modeling, and development policy, making it highly urgent in providing essential information, insights, and recommendations for forest conservation and SDG achievement in North Sumatra.